新宝股份（002705）：Q3内销恢复增长，外销仍受关税扰动

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 20.69 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in domestic sales due to government subsidies, while international sales continue to be affected by tariff policies. There is an expectation for gradual improvement in operations [1][2]. - The company is a leading exporter of small household appliances in China, with a strong potential for long-term growth driven by new product launches and channel expansions [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.28 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 840 million CNY, an increase of 7.1% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 4.48 billion CNY, down 9.8% year-over-year, and a net profit of 300 million CNY, down 13.1% year-over-year [1]. - Domestic sales in Q3 increased by 1.5% year-over-year, benefiting from government subsidies, while international sales decreased by 11.9% year-over-year due to tariff impacts [2]. - The company's Q3 net profit margin was 6.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [2]. - Operating cash flow improved in Q3, with a net cash flow of 970 million CNY, an increase of 410 million CNY year-over-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.38 CNY, 1.55 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively [3][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times for 2025, which corresponds to the target price of 20.69 CNY [3]. Market Position - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity to mitigate trade policy risks and is expected to see a recovery in international sales [3]. - The domestic market is anticipated to continue benefiting from the "old for new" appliance subsidy policy, which is expected to support the growth of the company's self-owned brands [3].