贵州茅台（600519）：25Q3点评：顺应市场，行稳致远

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company maintains stable profitability with a gross margin of 91.28%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of Moutai liquor sales [6] - Cash flow performance is better than revenue, with a year-on-year increase in cash sales of 2.7% and a 5.3% increase in "revenue + Δ contract liabilities" [9] - The company is focusing on channel health and has adopted a more restrained delivery rhythm in Q3 [9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.81 billion yuan (+0.35%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 19.22 billion yuan (+0.48%) [8] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 130.90 billion yuan (+6.32%) and net profit attributable to the parent company was 64.63 billion yuan (+6.25%) [8] - Moutai liquor revenue increased by 7.3% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue decreased by 34.0% [8] - The company’s direct sales revenue decreased by 14.9%, while wholesale revenue increased by 14.4% [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 183.40 billion yuan, 191.54 billion yuan, and 203.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 4.4%, and 6.2% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 90.33 billion yuan, 94.81 billion yuan, and 101.23 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 5.0%, and 6.8% [10]