YILI(SH:600887) Western Securities·2025-11-02 07:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 1.71% to 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 18.73% to 10.103 billion yuan [1][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 1.70% to 28.631 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.35% to 3.226 billion yuan, with net profit excluding non-recurring items down by 3.08% to 3.086 billion yuan. The revenue and profit figures met market expectations [1][3]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, accounting for 29.12% of the profit for the first three quarters [1]. Product Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 18.814 billion, 7.683 billion, 1.199 billion, and 0.590 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -8.83%, +12.65%, +17.35%, and +219.35%. The decline in liquid milk revenue is attributed to continued weak demand, while milk powder and cold drinks have shown a positive growth trend [2]. - By region, Q3 revenues were 8.163 billion, 6.886 billion, 5.331 billion, 4.276 billion, and 3.631 billion yuan for North China, South China, Central China, East China, and other regions, with year-on-year changes of +3.07%, -8.69%, -0.89%, -7.14%, and +12.77% respectively [2]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 1.09 percentage points to 33.76%. The company adopted a cautious expense strategy due to weak demand, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.27%, a slight decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.75, 1.91, and 2.05 yuan respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3].