JEI(SZ:000600) HTSC·2025-11-02 07:28Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant profit growth and shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks, highlighting its long-term value [1] - The decline in coal prices has led to a recovery in thermal power profitability, with substantial contributions from associated companies and ongoing project financing [1][2] - The company is actively pursuing new project developments and optimizing its capital structure through stock buybacks [3][4] - Improved cash flow and market value management strategies have enhanced shareholder return capabilities [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 5.369 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.6% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.3% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 16.482 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.583 billion yuan, up 232% year-over-year [1][2] - The average comprehensive standard coal price was 690.87 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-over-year, while the average on-grid electricity price was 435.22 yuan/MWh, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-over-year [2] Growth Initiatives - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the Xibaipo Phase IV project, which will enhance its coal power generation capacity [3] - The company is also moving forward with the buyback and cancellation of 6.065 million restricted shares, which will reduce the total share capital to 1.803 billion shares, thereby improving earnings per share [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 3.673 billion yuan, an increase of 75% year-over-year, reflecting improved cash flow conditions [4] - The company has announced a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 180 million yuan, with expectations for significant growth in dividends for 2025-2026 [4] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has raised the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 25%, 13%, and 22% respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 66% [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 10.13 yuan, up from 7.88 yuan, based on improved earnings expectations and valuation metrics [5]