首创环保（600008）：看好水务项目调价驱动盈利增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from water project price adjustments, which will drive profit growth [2][1] - The company reported Q3 revenue of 4.722 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 0.22% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.20% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 505 million RMB, down 78.37% year-over-year, primarily due to last year's gain from the sale of the Singapore ECO company [1] - The company’s operational cash flow increased by 9% year-over-year to 2.14 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.453 billion RMB, a year-over-year decline of 3.04%, and a net profit of 1.434 billion RMB, down 55.96% year-over-year [1] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin in Q3 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year to 35.9% [2] Operational Insights - The company has room for capacity improvement, with total water supply and sewage treatment capacity at 12.43 million and 14.92 million tons per day, respectively [2] - The pricing mechanism for water supply and sewage treatment is based on "permitted costs + permitted returns," providing stable revenue characteristics [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.782 billion, 1.912 billion, and 1.985 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.24, 0.26, and 0.27 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 3.85 RMB, based on a 14.8 times PE ratio for 2026 [4]