GREAT RIVER SMARTER(SZ:002930) HTSC·2025-11-02 07:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 285 million RMB in Q3, a year-over-year decrease of 18.75% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.72%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -25.93 million RMB, a year-over-year decline of 167.24% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 21.79%, which was below expectations [1] - The petrochemical industry remains weak, impacting the company's profitability due to low rental rates and occupancy, while costs remain fixed [1][2] - The company is viewed positively as a leader in petrochemical storage with scarce assets and strong acquisition and operational capabilities, but short-term performance is constrained by low industry demand [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 876 million RMB, down 19.46% year-over-year, with a net profit of -38.13 million RMB, a decline of 122.27% year-over-year [1] - The gross margin for the company was reported at 35.6%, down 12.9 percentage points year-over-year but up 2.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] Business Developments - The company announced the operation of 16 chemical warehouses in Changzhou, increasing its total operational warehouse area to 158,800 square meters, enhancing its cluster effect in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - The company has made progress in multiple business areas, including becoming a designated delivery warehouse for pure benzene at the Dalian Commodity Exchange [3] Incentives and Future Outlook - The company announced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, granting 12.27 million stock options at a price of 11.55 RMB per share, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [4] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates of 4.1 million RMB, 18.2 million RMB, and 26 million RMB respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 18% [5] - The target price for the company is set at 11.44 RMB, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.9x for 2026 [5]