Henan Lantian Gas (SH:605368) Soochow Securities·2025-11-02 09:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to weak demand and a decline in connections, with a revenue of 3.046 billion yuan, down 14.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262 million yuan, down 41.95% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the weak performance is primarily due to a sluggish real estate market affecting installation business, delayed price adjustments for residential gas, and a soft downstream natural gas demand [7] - The gradual implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, with a potential recovery in residential price differentials [7] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with actual payout ratios of 97.1%, 126.9%, and 139.7% for the respective periods, indicating a strong return for shareholders [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 4.947 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 4.179 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 606.31 million yuan in 2023 to 301.06 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 40.19% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 yuan per share in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 22.60 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to decrease from 6.216 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.800 billion yuan in 2026 [8]