SHCI(SH:601225) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 10:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [6][17] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 6.03% despite a year-on-year decline of 20.91% [6] - The rise in coal prices is expected to positively impact the company's earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward revision of profit estimates [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 169,913 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18,222 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% decrease year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.88 yuan, down from 2.31 yuan in 2024 [2] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 29.7% in 2025, a decrease from 32.7% in 2024 [2] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 22.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220,077 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, compared to an average of 15 for comparable companies [6][3] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 13,037 million tons of coal, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while sales volume rose by 1.8% to 11,938 million tons [6] - The average selling price of coal was 540 yuan per ton, down 13.0% year-on-year [6] - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 12.05% [6]