NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-02 11:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year growth of 8% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, and announced a special dividend plan of 3 billion yuan [1][7] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 26.325 billion yuan, an increase of 8.66% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.772 billion yuan, up 8.09% year-on-year [1][7] - The company experienced a significant increase in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.09% [3][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.14% [1][7] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.147 billion yuan, down 11.85% year-on-year but up 24.46% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.63%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year [3][14] Market Conditions - The company's performance is significantly influenced by commodity prices, with alumina prices declining year-on-year, while aluminum prices remained high [2][7] - In Q3 2025, the average domestic alumina price was approximately 3,124 yuan/ton, down about 20% year-on-year, while the average overseas alumina price was approximately 357 USD/ton, down about 29% year-on-year [2][7] Future Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 31.511 billion yuan, 35.362 billion yuan, and 38.636 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.059 billion yuan, 5.268 billion yuan, and 5.554 billion yuan for the same years [4][17] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.44 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.48 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.6, 10.2, and 9.6 [4][17]