能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas raw material prices are slowing down in their upward trend, and with the external macro - positive news being fully priced in, the rubber price center is adjusting downward. However, in the short term, concentrated rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas affects rubber tapping and output release, and the Yunnan production area in China is transitioning to the production - reduction stage due to a decrease in "dry content", which strongly supports the rubber price from falling. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year, with a 17.7% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month increase in September [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 26% year - on - year [6]. - Myanmar is implementing a plan to increase rubber yield per acre to over 1,000 pounds, which may increase export revenue by about $1 billion [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign rubber markets showed a differentiated trend. The domestic NR led the decline, while the foreign market rose slightly. On October 31, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,085 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,240 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 485 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, up 23.62% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 27.27% [18]. - The RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased [22]. - The import rubber market offer rose this week. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly with the market. The downstream maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [25]. - The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and the 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread increased [28]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - The price of the raw material end of substitutes decreased, and the market bearish sentiment increased. The offer of some brands of two - oil butadiene rubber was firm, but the negotiation center of private resources decreased. The supply price of two - oil butadiene rubber was under pressure to decline [35]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds decreased [38]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - In the Thai production area, rainfall in the south improved compared with last week, and rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In the domestic production area, rainfall in Hainan increased in the second half of the week, and rainfall in Yunnan decreased seasonally [43][45]. - Affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, raw material release in overseas and domestic production areas was blocked, and raw material procurement prices were high [47]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [55]. - Due to the increase in raw material prices, processing profits decreased. The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan decreased [56][61]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a large year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a large increase in smoked sheet exports [67]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, while exports to China decreased month - on - month [73]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [77]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow strongly, and exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [80]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year [84]. 3.6.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's tire enterprises decreased slightly this week. The inventory of all - steel tires stopped accumulating, and the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased slightly [89]. - In September 2025, exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but all - steel tire exports were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales and passenger - car sales continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month [90]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [93]. 3.6.3 Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber continued to decline in both dark and light varieties, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The inventory reduction in Qingdao slowed down [101]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber in the previous period decreased, while the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber in Shanghai International Energy increased [107]. 3.7 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Overseas raw material prices have slowed down in their upward trend. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [110]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly this week [110]. - View: The rubber price center is expected to adjust downward, but it is strongly supported from falling. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. - Strategy: Wait patiently for low - buying opportunities for single - side trading; observe for inter - period, inter - variety trading; consider selling 14,000 put options and building positions in batches for options trading [111].