Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-02 11:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3][22] Core Views - The company's breeding costs are steadily decreasing, and its internationalization strategy is progressing smoothly. In Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased by 15.52% year-on-year to 111.79 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 41.01% to 14.779 billion yuan. However, in Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 11.48% year-on-year to 35.327 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant decline in pig prices [1][9][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company sold a total of 18.929 million pigs and 3.28 million piglets, with an average selling price of approximately 13.6 yuan/kg, leading to a per-head profit of around 230-240 yuan, which is industry-leading. The total cost of pig farming has been decreasing monthly, reaching about 11.8 yuan/kg in July 2025, with a survival rate of 87% and a weaning-to-market survival rate of 92% [1][9][18]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company's balance sheet is steadily improving, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing by 3.17 percentage points to 55.51% by the end of Q3 2025. The net operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 was 28.58 billion yuan, accounting for 25.57% of revenue. The company has significantly increased its dividend payout ratio, distributing a total of 6.112 billion yuan in dividends, which is 58.04% of net profit attributable to shareholders [2][18][22]. International Strategy - The company is actively pursuing an internationalization strategy, having established a subsidiary in Vietnam in March 2025 and signed a cooperation agreement with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company in September 2025 to build and operate a high-tech breeding project in Vietnam. This project is expected to yield 64,000 breeding sows and approximately 1.6 million pigs annually once fully operational [2][18][22]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 18.73% and a net margin of 13.52% in Q1-Q3 2025, benefiting from significant cost reductions. The overall expense ratio has decreased, with management and R&D expenses down by 0.51 percentage points to 3.58% [1][9][18].