Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-02 12:11Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Zinc is expected to experience short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to changes in domestic and overseas inventories. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [3]. - The domestic supply pressure remains high. Although some smelters plan to cut production, the increase from复产 of individual smelters may lead to an overall increase in production. The consumption peak season is coming to an end, with weakening demand in various downstream sectors. The zinc price shows an oscillatory pattern, with an increasingly prominent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices. The export window has opened, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to materialize. Follow - up attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and the resumption of overseas smelter production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9]. Profit - Zinc ore enterprises' profits are stable in the short - term and in the middle of the historical range. Smelting profits have declined and are also in the middle of the historical range. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12]. 开工 - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc smelting start - up rates have declined. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide start - up rates have increased but are at a relatively low to medium level in history [14]. 2. Trading Aspects Spot - The spot premium has shown differentiation. Overseas premiums are also differentiated, with a slight increase in the Singapore premium and a decline from a high level in LME CASH - 3M, with reduced fluctuations [18][20]. Spread - The Shanghai zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes at the far end [22]. Inventory - There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with continuous de - stocking and no sign of a turning point for inventory accumulation. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly, and the total global visible zinc inventory has also decreased slightly [26][30][32]. Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low. The processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of ore at ports is low, and smelter raw material inventories have decreased [36][37]. Refined Zinc - Smelting production has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have decreased but are still at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44]. Regenerated Zinc Raw Materials - Not summarized due to lack of clear key information in the content. 4. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly start - up rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [55][58][74]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are presented, but no clear key viewpoints are summarized from the content.