DBN Group(SZ:002385) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-02 12:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company's feed business remains stable, and the breeding sector is recovering profitability, with a year-on-year increase of 93% in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 20.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, driven by the expansion of breeding scale and the consolidation of the seed business [2][9]. - The breeding segment saw a significant recovery in profitability due to the rebound in pig prices and a decrease in breeding costs [3][9]. - The seed segment continues to expand, with total sales increasing by 151% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of Longjing [4][21]. Summary by Sections Feed Business - The feed segment generated revenue of 13.423 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, with external sales of 4.0162 million tons, an increase of 2.90% year-on-year [3]. - The profitability per ton in the feed segment remains robust, with a net profit of nearly 400 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit of about 100 yuan per ton [3]. Breeding Business - The breeding segment's controlled slaughter volume increased by 25.94% year-on-year to 3.1609 million heads, generating revenue of 4.903 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for the breeding segment is estimated to be between 300 million to 400 million yuan, with profitability per head around 100 yuan, benefiting from lower feed costs and higher pig prices [3]. Seed Business - The seed segment's total sales volume reached 20.44 million kilograms in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 151%, with total revenue of 513 million yuan, an increase of 81% [4]. - The company has a clear first-mover advantage in transgenic traits and is actively integrating high-quality targets in traditional hybrid breeding [4][21]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 260 million yuan from the previous 550 million yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 290 million yuan and 410 million yuan, respectively [21]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.06, 0.07, and 0.09 yuan, respectively [21].