hbky(SH:600985) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-02 13:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal volume and price, leading to a significant drop in revenue and profit [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on the growth potential of coal mines despite current challenges [4] - Future growth is anticipated as ongoing projects are steadily advancing, with expectations for production capacity to be released in the coming years [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 319.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.78% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.70 billion yuan, down 74.14% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 10.01 billion yuan, a decline of 75.48% [4] - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 112.43 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.50%, but net profit dropped to 0.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.61% quarter-on-quarter [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 24.11 billion yuan, 30.7 billion yuan, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -50.3%, +27.4%, and +24.8% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.90 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.42 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.8, 11.6, and 9.3 times [4][8] Business Segment Analysis - The coal business has been significantly impacted by a decrease in both production and prices, leading to reduced sales revenue [5] - The coal chemical and trading segments also contributed to the decline in performance, with lower coke prices and a contraction in trading activities [6] Project Development and Capacity Expansion - The company is actively accelerating project construction, with the Tohutu coal mine expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and operational in 2026 [7] - Seven new mines with a total capacity of 16.4 million tons per year are set to be operational in 2025, alongside successful resource storage of 23.47 million tons [7]