CSCEC(SH:601668) Guotou Securities·2025-11-02 13:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 6.37 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 5.43 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.56 trillion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, primarily due to a contraction in domestic real estate and infrastructure demand [2][3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 38.182 billion CNY, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.1% in Q3 alone [3]. - Despite the overall revenue decline, the company's overseas business showed robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in overseas revenue [2]. - The company has maintained positive growth in new contract signings, totaling 3.04 trillion CNY for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.56 trillion CNY, down 4.2% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 449.912 billion CNY, a decline of 6.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 8.72%, a slight decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin stood at 3.17%, down 0.04 percentage points [3]. - The operating cash flow improved, with a cash outflow of 69.479 billion CNY, which is 7.53 billion CNY less than the previous year [3]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate development saw year-on-year changes of -5.3%, -3.6%, and +0.6%, respectively [2]. - The company’s land reserve structure continues to optimize, with an addition of 6.95 million square meters of land in first-tier, second-tier, and provincial capital cities [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.18715 trillion CNY, 2.27026 trillion CNY, and 2.34972 trillion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 46.53 billion CNY, 47.85 billion CNY, and 49.33 billion CNY [9][10].