Jiayou International(SH:603871) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-02 14:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.49 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3][9]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 6.8% to 410 million yuan, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.2%. The improvement in gross profit was driven by both volume and price increases, with expectations for significant profit growth in the fourth quarter [9]. - The company is transitioning from the initial stage of capacity expansion to a new growth phase, focusing on the core export routes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, which is expected to drive valuation expansion [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.49 billion yuan, a 30.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 310 million yuan, which is a 4.9% decrease year-on-year but a 4.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][9]. - The gross profit margin showed a decline year-on-year but improved quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery trend in profitability [9]. Market Dynamics - The company benefited from domestic coal price increases, with main coking coal prices rising by 17.8% to 922 yuan per ton since July 2025, contributing to improved trading activity [9]. - The volume of cargo passing through the Ganqimodu port increased by 41.5% year-on-year and 31.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a recovery in market activity [9]. Strategic Developments - The signing of the memorandum for the TAZARA railway project marks a significant strategic milestone, enhancing the company's cross-border logistics capabilities in East Africa [9]. - The company is expected to see increased profitability from the new projects and the ongoing operations in Africa, particularly with the opening of new routes and infrastructure [9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profits in Q4 2025, driven by improved margins in the Mongolian coal supply chain and the expansion of logistics operations in Africa [9]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.29 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.74 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.6, 12.2, and 10.8 [9].