Seazen(SH:601155) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-02 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company's self-owned business contribution has improved, leading to an increase in gross profit margin, and a revaluation of the company's worth is expected. Amid a backdrop of accelerating industry downturn, expectations for policy negotiations are gradually rising. The peak debt repayment period for the company has passed, and its financing capabilities continue to recover, which is likely to enhance market risk appetite. The ample land reserves on hand still provide certain guarantees for sales, and the steady growth of self-owned business has become an important source of profit and financing for the company, indicating a potential revaluation of its value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 34.37 billion yuan (down 33.3%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan (down 33.0%). The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.01 billion yuan (down 31.8%) [6]. Business Operations - The revenue contribution from self-owned business has increased, raising the gross profit margin, while the decrease in development completion scale has suppressed revenue performance. The company completed an area of 3.5 million square meters (down 59.8%), leading to a year-on-year revenue decline of 33.3% to 34.37 billion yuan. The gross profit margin is expected to remain under pressure, but the expansion of high-profit property leasing and management business has effectively countered this [13]. Sales and Market Conditions - Sales remain under pressure, with the company achieving sales of 15.1 billion yuan (down 52.7%) and an area of 1.96 million square meters (down 54.6%) in the first three quarters of 2025. The average price was 7,700 yuan per square meter (up 4.1%). The supply quality and quantity are under pressure, and the overall sales performance is still constrained [13]. Self-Owned Business Growth - The self-owned business has shown steady growth, with the number of operational and managed shopping malls reaching 176, and the total leasable area of self-owned properties at 9.7 million square meters (up 4.6%). The average occupancy rate is 97.7% (up 0.1 percentage points). The total revenue from commercial operations for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.51 billion yuan (up 10.8%), achieving 75.1% of the annual target [13]. Future Outlook - The company expects a continued upward trend in gross profit margin due to the sustained growth in high-profit commercial operations. The estimated net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are projected to be 810 million, 1.13 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.4, 28.3, and 24.4 times [13].