黄金税收政策新规出台，中国10月PMI不及预期

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term bearish, pay attention to decline risks [12][13] - Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index): Short - term volatile [16][17][18] - US stock index futures: Short - term high - level volatile, bullish in the long - term with profit support [20] - Stock index futures: Long - position balanced allocation [24] - Treasury bond futures: Short - term slightly bullish with limited upside, pay attention to rhythm and odds [27] - Palm oil: Short - term expected to open lower, pay attention to long - position opportunities around 8500 yuan [31] - International soybean oil: Short - term bottom - supported, expected to be volatile [31] - Domestic soybean oil: Short - term expected to be volatile [31] - Power coal: Price supported in the fourth quarter, pay attention to weather and policy [32] - Iron ore: Short - term volatile, pay attention to policy changes [34] - Bean粕: Follow import cost, pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [36] - Sugar: Short - term expected to be volatile [41] - Cotton: Short - term expected to be volatile, long - term cautiously bullish [46] - Rebar/Hot - rolled coil: Short - term volatile [50][51] - Red dates: Wait - and - see, pay attention to price game and purchase progress [52] - Corn starch: 11 - contract CS - C expected to strengthen further, 01 - contract may have price - difference repair [54][55] - Corn: If government - stored wheat is used for feed, there may be short - selling opportunities [56] - Alumina: Wait - and - see [59] - Copper: Short - term expected to be volatile after reaching a high, recommend buying on dips [63] - Lead: Low - inventory, short - term bullish with high uncertainty, positive spread arbitrage possible [65] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see, pay attention to mid - line positive spread arbitrage [70][71] - Polysilicon: Policy and fundamentals in game, long - position holders can hold, consider call options [74] - Industrial silicon: Buying on dips is cost - effective [76] - Lithium carbonate: Short - term range - bound, mid - line short - selling after demand peaks, pay attention to positive spread arbitrage [80][81] - Nickel: Q4 nickel ore price expected to rise, recommend long - position on dips or option strategies [84] - Carbon emissions: Short - term volatile [87] - Crude oil: Volatile [89] - Bottle chips: Short - term supply - demand conflict not prominent, marginal weakening expected [91] - Container freight rates: Volatile, consider long - position on dips [93] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, factors such as gold tax policy, Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rates, and economic data impact market trends. In the commodity market, supply and demand, policy, and seasonal factors affect prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and risks [12][16][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New gold tax policy: VAT on standard gold for investment is refunded immediately, and related taxes are exempted. Physical gold demand may be suppressed, and short - term price is bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index)) - Fed officials oppose December rate cuts due to high inflation, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US stock index futures) - Market expectations for rate cuts are adjusted, and short - term risk appetite declines. The market is volatile at a high level [19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock index futures) - October PMI shows production slowdown, and the stock index is expected to be volatile at a high level. Long - position balanced allocation is recommended [22][23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury bond futures) - October manufacturing PMI declines, and November is a policy window period. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upside is limited [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean oil/Rapeseed oil/Palm oil) - Indonesian palm oil reference price rises slightly, and Malaysia's October palm oil exports increase. Palm oil price is under pressure in the short - term but may be supported later. Soybean oil is expected to be volatile [29][30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Power coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal price is stable. Coal price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the fourth quarter [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron ore) - Third - quarter iron ore sales increase. Demand is affected by environmental protection, and price is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Bean粕) - Oil mill operation rate is high, and bean粕 price follows import cost. Pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [35][36] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazilian sugar production increases, and Indian sugar industry requests export policy. Zheng sugar is expected to be volatile [40][41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought area decreases. Cotton price is expected to be volatile [42][44][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled coil) - Iron water output declines, and steel price is affected by Sino - US relations. Price is expected to be volatile [47][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Red dates) - Xinjiang red dates are in the drying period, and inventory increases. Price is expected to be volatile, wait - and - see [51][52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn starch) - September starch export declines, and October export may increase. 11 - contract CS - C and 01 - contract may strengthen [53][54][55] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn price is stable with narrow fluctuations. Pay attention to government - stored wheat auction [55][56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Inventory increases, and the market is in oversupply. Wait - and - see [57][58][59] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper projects have new progress. Price is affected by the US dollar and inventory, expected to be volatile [60][63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead is in contango. Low - inventory supports price, pay attention to delivery risk [64][65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc mines' output changes. Price is affected by market sentiment and inventory, expected to be volatile [66][69][70] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon futures rise, and price is in a policy - fundamentals game. Pay attention to policy progress [72][73][74] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial silicon) - Southwest production is expected to decrease. Price is expected to be supported, recommend long - position on dips [75][76] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium carbonate) - Company negotiates to sell lithium project stake. Price is affected by supply - demand and inventory, expected to be volatile [77][78][81] 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Company's nickel self - supply increases. Price is affected by inventory, season, and demand, expected to be volatile [82][83][84] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon emissions) - EUA price is volatile. Market trading activity decreases, and signal is neutral [85][86][87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Crude oil) - OPEC decides to increase production in December and pause in Q1 2026. Price is expected to be volatile [87][88][89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle chips) - Bottle chip factory price is adjusted, and supply - demand is expected to weaken marginally [90][91] 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container freight rates) - Shipping company adjusts surcharge. Freight rate is expected to be volatile, consider long - position on dips [92][93]