申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251103

Group 1: Cloud Computing and AI Industry - Google Cloud's revenue accelerated further, with a quarterly revenue of $15.2 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 33.5%. The demand from Anthropic is expected to drive continued growth for AWS [12][10] - Microsoft Azure's revenue growth guidance has slightly decreased, with FY26Q1 growth at 39% and Q2 guidance dropping to 37% [12] - Amazon AWS reported revenue of $33 billion, exceeding market expectations with a year-over-year growth of 20.2%, indicating a strong demand outlook [12][10] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - Major liquor companies reported significant revenue declines, with Wuliangye's revenue down 53% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while Moutai's revenue growth slowed to 0.35% [11][15] - The high-end liquor prices have continued to drop, indicating a market in search of a balance between volume and price [11][15] - The food and beverage sector is entering a strategic allocation phase, with a focus on high-quality companies despite the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements [11][13] Group 3: Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry is rated positively, with a recovery in profitability observed in Q2 2025. The sector is expected to benefit from a long-term upward demand trend [14][20] - The industry is advised to focus on sectors such as textile and agricultural chemicals, with a particular emphasis on key materials that are self-sufficient [20][17] - The overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry remains at a historical low of 49.6%, indicating a stable financial position [16][17] Group 4: Shipbuilding Industry - China Shipbuilding reported a revenue of 107.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with a net profit of 5.85 billion yuan, up 115% [21][19] - The company has a strong order backlog, with approximately 21.13 million CGT and $55.4 billion in orders, indicating a positive outlook for future deliveries [21][19] - The easing of port fees related to U.S. vessels is expected to improve the shipbuilding industry's fundamentals [24][19]