宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数下跌0.43%-20251103

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.43% this week, with the recommended asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][4] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [5][25] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.43%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose by 0.21%. Futures for coking coal and iron ore increased by 3.52% and 3.31%, respectively [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao (a money market fund) decreased by 4 basis points to 1.02%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds fell by 5 basis points to 1.80% [2][39] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order: stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, with a focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies [3][4] - The production index for October is at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing procurement activities [3][5] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a phase of procurement slowdown, influenced by fewer working days due to overlapping holidays and ongoing impacts from U.S. tariff policies [3][5] - The automotive industry shows a mixed performance, with a forecast of approximately 2.4 million units sold in October, reflecting a stable consumer demand despite high previous year comparisons [41][36] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity futures index decreased by 1.96% this week, with notable increases in coking coal and iron ore, while other commodities like precious metals and chemical products saw declines [50][39] - The report notes that the coal and steel sectors are showing resilience, with significant price increases in coking coal and iron ore futures [50][39]