Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-03 03:59Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - demand environment is weak, and some varieties with previously high industrial profits have a need for catch - up declines. However, overall valuations are low, so there is little point in chasing short positions for most varieties. Waiting may be the best choice. The decline process can test fundamentals, and only varieties with real fundamental improvements can show long - lasting resistance during the overall market decline. Attention can be paid to varieties with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase positions, volume, and resist decline during the fall [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The market is centered around several themes: the US's intention to sanction Russia has led to a rebound in the crude oil market; the China - US trade negotiation has been settled with a one - year suspension of some measures; the implementation of Indonesia's B50 has encountered obstacles, causing palm oil prices to weaken. Crude oil's medium - to - long - term supply and demand remain weak, but with a low valuation, it is regarded as oscillating. China will purchase some US soybeans, providing short - term support, but the rebound space depends on the uncertainty of South American supply. The soybean - palm oil spread has continuously rebounded and significantly repaired. The high cost of promoting biodiesel at current palm oil prices has left the Indonesian government with no solutions, leading to an obvious decline in palm oil prices. The recent weakness of methanol can be seen as a catch - up decline due to its previously high production profit. In a weak macro - demand environment, high industrial profits are unlikely to last, and a valuation decline is likely. The "Zhui Feng 1" product recommended short - selling palm oil and recently exited the position according to the rules, mainly because of the palm oil's fundamental logic. Instead of relying on frequent market predictions, strategies should be used. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products can be subscribed to via [Nanhua Futures App - Selected Research Reports - Strategy Research Selection], and both have free trials [4]. 3.2. Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital is 15.604 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.667 billion (-33.0%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.116 billion (35.8%), black metals had an outflow of 481 million (-10.7%), energy had an outflow of 341 million (-22.8%), chemicals had an inflow of 320 million (9.9%), feed and breeding had an inflow of 54 million (2.6%), oils and fats had an outflow of 405 million (-9.0%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 4 million (0.2%) [8]. - Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data: Data on price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper are provided [8]. - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt are presented [10]. - Agricultural Products Weekly Data: Data on agricultural product varieties including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are given [11]. 3.3. Graphs - Graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non - ferrous metal plate varieties are included, with data sources from WIND and Nanhua Research [12][14][17][21][22][23][27].