盐津铺子(002847):25Q3点评:魔芋高增,净利率目标超预期兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded its net profit margin target, achieving a year-on-year increase of 3.21 percentage points to 15.6% in Q3 2025, primarily due to product structure upgrades and supply chain efficiency improvements [4][6] - The company is benefiting from the growth cycle of the konjac product category, successfully implementing a brand strategy transformation and upgrading its product/channel structure [5] - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached 1.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 232 million yuan, up 33.55% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025: Revenue of 1.486 billion yuan (+6.05%), net profit of 232 million yuan (+33.55%), and non-recurring net profit of 220 million yuan (+45.01%) [6] - For the first three quarters of 2025: Revenue of 4.427 billion yuan (+14.67%), net profit of 605 million yuan (+22.63%), and non-recurring net profit of 554 million yuan (+30.54%) [6] - The company expects to achieve total revenue of 6.004 billion yuan, 7.048 billion yuan, and 7.973 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 17.4%, and 13.1% [5][8] Product and Channel Analysis - The konjac product category is expected to continue its strong growth, with significant contributions from the "Big Konjac" product line [6] - Offline channel revenue growth is anticipated to outpace online channels, with double-digit growth expected in offline channels [6] - Online channels are projected to experience a decline due to strategic adjustments, particularly in low-efficiency media channels [6]