SPM(SH:601900) Orient Securities·2025-11-03 04:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.64 CNY, based on a revised P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company's core business in educational materials is stable and defensive, with significant increases in R&D investment, particularly in AI education products, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [2][4]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.31 billion CNY (down 5.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 400 million CNY (up 74% year-on-year), showcasing strong profit growth despite a slight decline in revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 37.5%, driven by an increase in the proportion of higher-margin educational materials [3]. - The company effectively controlled costs, maintaining a management expense ratio of 10.6% and reducing the sales expense ratio by 0.36 percentage points to 8.3% [3]. - The company held 3 billion CNY in cash and financial assets as of Q3 2025, indicating a strong liquidity position [2]. R&D and AI Development - The company has significantly increased its R&D spending, with a three-digit percentage growth in R&D expenses in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to rising personnel costs [4]. - A subsidiary's AI learning model was selected as a key project by the National Press and Publication Administration, highlighting the company's strategic focus on AI [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted down to 1.11 billion CNY from 1.15 billion CNY, while projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at 1.19 billion CNY and 1.28 billion CNY, respectively [5]. - The company benefits from its geographical advantage in the Greater Bay Area, which is expected to contribute to future growth in educational materials for Hong Kong and Macau [3].