中国建筑（601668）：业绩短期承压，海外业务表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but overseas business shows strong performance [4] - Revenue and profit have declined due to a slowdown in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The company maintains a leading position in the industry with significant advantages in business scale and asset quality, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,558.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.18 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year [6] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.72%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed a marginal improvement, with a net outflow of 69.48 billion yuan, which is 7.53 billion yuan less than the previous year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 47.5 billion yuan, 49.4 billion yuan, and 51.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.86%, 3.88%, and 3.73% [5][6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the current stock price is projected to be 4.72, 4.55, and 4.38 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Business Segment Performance - The company’s construction and infrastructure segments reported revenues of 988.6 billion yuan and 370.6 billion yuan respectively for the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year declines of 5.3% and 3.6% [6] - The overseas business generated revenue of 91.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [6] - The real estate development segment achieved revenue of 177.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with contract sales of 255.3 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year [6]