Guobo Electronics (SH:688375) HTSC·2025-11-03 05:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Guobo Electronics [6] Core Views - Guobo Electronics reported Q3 revenue of 498 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 2.54% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 30.88%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45.75 million RMB, down 26.04% year-over-year and 68.19% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.569 billion RMB, a year-over-year decline of 13.51%, and a net profit of 247 million RMB, down 19.35% year-over-year [1][4] Summary by Sections Business Segments - In the military segment, the active T/R component business experienced a short-term decline due to fluctuations in military demand. The company is actively expanding the application of T/R components in various platforms, including airborne and satellite systems, with several products already delivered in the low-orbit satellite and commercial aerospace sectors, which are expected to become a "second growth engine" for the company. In the civilian sector, the company has made significant breakthroughs in the mobile terminal field, achieving mass production of silicon-based gallium nitride power amplifier chips, which are expected to drive rapid growth in the RF chip business as satellite connectivity in mobile devices accelerates [2] Profitability and Expenses - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 38.12%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 15.75%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points year-over-year. The Q3 gross margin and net profit margin saw year-over-year declines of 3.59 and 2.92 percentage points, respectively. The expense ratios for sales, management, finance, and R&D were 0.55%, 6.49%, -0.89%, and 12.67%, respectively, with sales and management expense ratios increasing year-over-year due to a decline in revenue scale. The R&D expense ratio decreased year-over-year but remained high at 12.67%, supporting the company's expansion in new technologies and products [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering the recovery pace of the military business, the forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 506 million, 650 million, and 821 million RMB, respectively. The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2026 is estimated at 72x. Given the high growth of military T/R components and the rapid breakthroughs in civilian RF chips, a target PE of 75x for 2026 is assigned, corresponding to a target price of 81.85 RMB per share, up from a previous estimate of 69.24 RMB per share [4]