APELOA(SZ:000739) Western Securities·2025-11-03 06:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][2]. Core Insights - The company's traditional business faces short-term pressure, while the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business shows strong growth certainty [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan, down 16.4%, and a net profit of 700 million yuan, down 19.5% [1][5]. - The CDMO segment has seen significant growth, with revenue increasing by nearly 20% year-on-year, and its gross margin rising to 44.5% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.9%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 44.0% [1][5]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 23.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, while the net margin was 5.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [1][5]. Business Segments - The raw materials segment generated revenue of 5.19 billion yuan, significantly down due to the contraction of low-margin API trading and weak demand in some categories [1][2]. - The CDMO segment's revenue reached 1.69 billion yuan, becoming the largest gross margin contributor with a gross margin of 44.5% [1][2]. - The formulation segment's revenue was 830 million yuan, down approximately 10% due to price reductions from domestic procurement [1][2]. CDMO Growth - As of Q3 2025, the company had 391 commercial projects (+15%), 853 clinical projects (+41%), and 1,343 quoted projects (+68%) in the CDMO segment [2]. - The total order value for projects to be delivered in the next 2-3 years is expected to reach 5.2 billion yuan, supporting continued high growth in CDMO revenue [2]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.06 billion yuan, 11.67 billion yuan, and 12.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected growth rates of -8.0%, 5.5%, and 10.7% [2][9]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.00 billion yuan, 1.22 billion yuan, and 1.50 billion yuan, with growth rates of -2.5%, 21.2%, and 23.4% [2][9].