KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-03 07:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has slowed down in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.56% to 390.6 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 0.48% to 192.24 billion yuan. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,284.5 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 646.3 billion yuan, up 6.25% year-on-year [6][7] - The report indicates a significant decline in series liquor sales, which dropped by 34.01% year-on-year to 41.22 billion yuan, while the revenue from Moutai liquor remained relatively stable, increasing by 7.26% to 349.24 billion yuan [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 914.5 billion yuan (-29.8%), 973.6 billion yuan (-35.2%), and 1,029.2 billion yuan (-25.3%) respectively, with corresponding EPS of 73.02 yuan, 77.75 yuan, and 82.18 yuan [6][8] Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected revenue is 184,128 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%. The net profit is expected to be 91,447 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.1% [11] - The gross margin is projected to be 92.0% for 2025, with a net margin of 51.9% [11] - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19.6, 18.4, and 17.4 respectively [11] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue in Q3 2025 decreased by 14.9% to 155.5 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in online sales from the "i Moutai" platform, which saw a 57.2% decline [8] - Wholesale channel revenue increased by 14.4% to 235.0 billion yuan, indicating that distributors are bearing more growth pressure in a weak demand environment [8] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company reported a healthy cash flow with a 22.4 billion yuan increase in prepayments compared to the end of Q2 2025. The total revenue plus changes in prepayments for Q3 was 420.52 billion yuan, up 6.17% year-on-year [9] - The gross profit margin improved slightly to 91.44%, with a net profit margin of 48.29%, reflecting stable profitability despite revenue slowdown [9]