牧原股份（002714）：养殖效率精进，成本优势扩大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.78 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [1]. - The company has improved production efficiency and reduced costs, with a total cost of sales for pigs in Q3 at 11.7 yuan/kg, showing a steady decline in costs over the months [1]. - The company has responded to national capacity control measures by reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7% [1]. - The slaughtering business has shown significant improvement, with 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and achieving profitability in Q3 [2]. - The company is exploring overseas market opportunities for future growth, indicating a strategic direction for capital expenditure [2]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.667 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, followed by an increase of 124.9% in 2026, and a decrease of 25% in 2027 [2]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 17.5x, with a projected EPS of 2.87 yuan [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 137.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous year [3].