常熟银行(601128):息差边际企稳,拨备水平小幅下行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating income of 9.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.36 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [4]. - The bank's total asset scale grew by 10.9% year-on-year, with loan and deposit scales increasing by 7.1% and 9.7% respectively [4]. - The bank's net interest margin stabilized at 2.57% as of the end of the third quarter, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [7]. - The bank's non-interest income saw a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, although it experienced a decline in growth compared to the first half of the year [7]. - The bank maintains a high provision coverage ratio of 463% and a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76%, indicating strong asset quality [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net interest income growth of 2.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.33, 1.52, and 1.73 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 15.3%, 15.0%, and 13.7% [9]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 400.06 billion yuan by 2025, with a loan total of 261.13 billion yuan [10]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is projected to decrease to 0.75% in 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 491% [10]. - The bank's credit impairment losses are expected to be 1.735 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a proactive approach to risk management [10]. Market Position - The bank focuses on the "three rural issues and two small" market positioning, emphasizing inclusive finance and differentiated development strategies [9]. - The bank's retail and small micro-business segments are expected to benefit from the recovery in demand from small enterprises and retail customers [9].