SCIE(SH:600546) Xinda Securities·2025-11-03 09:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 15.332 billion yuan, down 30.20%, and net profit at 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [1] - Despite the decline in coal prices, the company experienced a significant increase in sales volume in the third quarter, with a 59.77% increase in self-produced coal sales compared to the previous quarter [4] - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance due to effective destocking and a potential stabilization in coal prices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 26.6414 million tons, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while self-produced coal sales reached 19.8199 million tons, up 5.31% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price for coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the sales cost per ton decreased to 253.83 yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year [4] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.98%, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.18% [2] Production and Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its coal sales cost, which supports its profitability despite falling coal prices [4] - The company has purchased 2.1 million tons of coal production capacity replacement indicators to enhance its production capacity [4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to have net profits of 1.701 billion yuan, 1.938 billion yuan, and 2.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.04 yuan [4] - The company maintains a competitive advantage with low costs, good asset quality, and stable high dividends, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4]