CHIFENG GOLD(SH:600988) China Post Securities·2025-11-03 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.51 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 140.98% [4]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 86.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.91% [4]. - The company’s gold production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 10.71 tons, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.41%, but Q3 production saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.68% [5]. - The report highlights ongoing project developments, including the discovery of a large-scale gold-copper deposit at Wanxiang Mining, which is expected to significantly contribute to profit growth [7]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 90.26 billion yuan in 2024 to 183.45 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.99% to 5.88% [11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.96 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 119.46% to 7.75% [11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 32.09 in 2024 to 9.49 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [11]. Cost and Production Insights - The average gold sales cost for Q1-Q3 2025 was approximately 327 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6]. - The report notes that the cost of production at the Vasa mine has increased significantly due to various factors, including tax rate hikes and operational cost increases [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates stable growth in gold production and sales, with projected net profits of 34.28 billion yuan, 55.34 billion yuan, and 59.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing mining project developments and improved operational efficiencies, contributing to overall profitability [7].