Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-03 09:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.06 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company plans to acquire a 10.6% stake in Yingen Mining, increasing its ownership to 70.6%. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's growth potential as Yingen Mining operates significant projects in the soda ash sector [12]. - The soda ash market is experiencing a downturn, with prices for key products like heavy soda ash and light soda ash dropping significantly. The average prices for Q1-Q3 2025 were 1,387 yuan/ton and 1,349 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.7% and 34.3%, respectively [12]. - The company maintains a strong safety margin and growth potential, with expectations for significant dividends and price elasticity in the future. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.47 billion yuan, 2.23 billion yuan, and 2.57 billion yuan, respectively [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.0% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 320 million yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year and 20.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market Conditions - The soda ash industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with prices continuing to decline due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics. The average prices for Q3 2025 were 1,240 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash and 1,200 yuan/ton for light soda ash, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.0% and 8.7%, respectively [12]. Strategic Moves - The planned acquisition of Yingen Mining is a strategic move to enhance the company's stake in a key subsidiary, which is crucial for future growth. Yingen Mining is responsible for significant production capacities in the soda ash sector, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financials [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from potential rebounds in the soda ash market, with a focus on energy efficiency and equipment upgrades. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and a commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [12].