CMPO(SZ:001914) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-03 11:36Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Merchants Property Operation & Service, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [4][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 13.94 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.65%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 690 million, up 10.71% year-on-year [4][15]. - The report projects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB 0.89, RMB 1.03, and RMB 1.14 respectively, with a target price set at RMB 16.12 based on a PE ratio of 18.11X for 2025 [4][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 15.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.17 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [3][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 736 million in 2023 to RMB 1.21 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.9% [3][4]. - The overall gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, while net profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9% due to a 29.6% increase in management expenses [4][16]. Property Management Contracts - The company signed new property management contracts worth RMB 3.02 billion, with 92% derived from market expansion projects. By September 2025, it managed 2,410 projects covering 367 million square meters [4][17]. - The residential sector saw a 38% year-on-year increase in new contracts, indicating a strong focus on expanding this segment [4][17]. Asset Management Performance - The asset management segment reported over a 15% increase in sales, with property occupancy rates remaining high at 94%. The summer operations led to a 20% increase in traffic and a 15% increase in sales year-on-year [4][18].