AVIC XAC(SZ:000768) Soochow Securities·2025-11-03 11:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency improvement, positioned in a critical growth phase for civil aircraft production and military product deliveries [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 30.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 999.2 million yuan, up 5.15% year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 40.301 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 7.01% year-on-year. For 2024A, the revenue is expected to be 43.216 billion yuan, growing by 7.23% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 860.97 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 64.41%. The projected net profit for 2024A is 1.023 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.87% growth [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.31 yuan per share, with projections of 0.37 yuan for 2024A and 0.41 yuan for 2025E [1][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has shown improved core profitability, with a decrease in sales expenses by 87.87% to 33 million yuan and a reduction in management expenses by 22.30% to 677 million yuan, effectively offsetting cost pressures [7] - The gross profit margin is reported at 6.79%, slightly down by 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remains stable at 3.28% [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 70.58%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved leverage [7] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was -8.229 billion yuan, a significant improvement of 40.04% year-on-year, primarily due to better sales collection [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.139 billion yuan in 2025, 1.339 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.604 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 63, 53, and 45 respectively [1][8]