TSMC(US:TSM) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-11-03 11:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, based on strong AI demand and gradual capacity release [3][5]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, surpassing the previous guidance of $31.8-$33 billion [1]. - The company's gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, 2% higher than the upper guidance limit, attributed to cost improvements and increased capacity utilization [1]. - TSMC's net profit for the quarter was $15.1 billion, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year growth [1]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) has steadily increased, with 74% of total wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [1]. Demand Perspective - AI demand has strengthened compared to three months ago, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 57% of revenue in Q3 2025, followed by smartphones at 30% [2]. - Despite geopolitical impacts on shipments to mainland China, TSMC remains confident in achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next few years [2]. Supply Perspective - TSMC is continuing its capacity expansion plans, with multiple 2nm fabs being prepared in Taiwan and accelerated expansion in Arizona, USA, to meet strong AI demand [2]. - The company is also acquiring additional land to support its expansion plans, with ongoing construction of a second fab in Japan and progress on a special process fab in Dresden, Germany [2]. Financial Guidance - For Q4 2025, TSMC projects revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, with a gross margin range of 59.0%-61.0% [3]. - The company has raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $40-$42 billion, up from the previous range of $38-$42 billion [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at NT$3.72 trillion, NT$4.50 trillion, and NT$5.51 trillion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 21%, and 22% respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's projected net profit for 2025 is NT$1.65 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [4]. - The company's earnings per ADS are expected to be $10.37 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 28x for 2026 [4]. - Key financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 29.6% in 2025, with a projected P/B ratio of 8.5 [4].