XCMG(SZ:000425) Shanghai Securities·2025-11-03 12:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.61% in revenue and 11.67% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 101.11 billion, 114.96 billion, and 133.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 10.31%, 13.70%, and 16.35% [8] - The report highlights improvements in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 5.69 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 210% increase year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.99%, while net profit was 1.62 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year [5][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.02%, down 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 7.14%, down 1.17 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Market Demand - The company benefited from favorable demand in the construction machinery market, with excavator sales reaching 53,500 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% [6] - Domestic and export sales of excavators were 24,200 and 29,300 units respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 18.03% and 23.91% [6] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.31 billion, 9.26 billion, and 11.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 22.41%, 26.55%, and 24.38% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 14, and 11 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]