保隆科技（603197）：25Q3业绩环比改善，空悬业务快速增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 48.3 CNY per share [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.098 billion CNY in Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth of 13.85% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.63 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 36.92% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.99% [1]. - The air suspension business continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, particularly from popular models like NIO's L90 and Li Auto's i8 and i6 [1][2]. - The air suspension industry is experiencing rapid penetration growth, with rates expected to rise from 2.67% in 2023 to 3.54% in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the company as a leading domestic supplier [2]. Revenue Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 6.048 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.32%. The air suspension revenue reached 0.953 billion CNY, up 51.73% year-on-year, while sensor revenue was 0.557 billion CNY, up 18.23% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company expects continued revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by increasing sales of new models from NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng [1]. Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.34%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.26 percentage points but an improvement of 0.86 percentage points from the previous quarter. The decline in gross margin year-on-year was attributed to significant pressure from customer annual reductions and tariffs on certain products [1][3]. - The report anticipates that as revenue increases, the gross margin from new businesses will gradually recover, and the company's expense ratio will continue to decline, leading to improved profitability [1]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.34 billion CNY, 0.49 billion CNY, and 0.59 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23, 16, and 14 times [2][3]. - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is 8.46 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 20.5% [3][9].