HLGF(SH:600346) East Money Securities·2025-11-03 13:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market index [5]. Core Insights - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 performance showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 81.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97.41% [4]. - The global petrochemical industry is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with significant capacity reductions expected, which will benefit Hengli Petrochemical [4]. - The company's strong cash flow and reduced capital expenditures are expected to enhance its dividend capacity in the future [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenues of 157.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.02 billion yuan, down 1.61% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 53.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.99% year-on-year but an increase of 14.13% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97.41% [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 236.9 billion yuan, 244.7 billion yuan, and 251.5 billion yuan, respectively, with slight growth rates [6]. - The net profit estimates for the same period are 7.32 billion yuan, 8.48 billion yuan, and 9.39 billion yuan, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.04 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The report highlights the high concentration of production capacity among major players in the PTA market, which is expected to facilitate collaborative production cuts [4]. - Hengli Petrochemical's ongoing efforts to optimize its supply chain and reduce operational costs are expected to strengthen its competitive position in the industry [4].