Nvidia(US:NVDA) Ping An Securities·2025-11-04 00:59Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, leading to an increase in US stocks and the dollar, while gold and oil prices have declined. The MSCI global index rose by 0.49%, with major markets like the US, Japan, the UK, and New Zealand performing well. However, the Hong Kong stock market faced a downturn due to disappointing earnings from tech and banking sectors [2][11][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of improvement, with the ADP reporting a rebound in US private sector employment. The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% has led to a significant decrease in market expectations for further rate cuts in December [5][6] - The recent US-China summit and APEC meeting indicate a warming of trade relations, which may positively impact global capital market risk appetite. Leaders from both countries emphasized the importance of dialogue over confrontation [6][7] Economic Indicators - The ADP's weekly employment data shows an average increase of 14,300 jobs in the US private sector over the past four weeks, indicating a significant improvement in the labor market since the end of September [5] - As of October 31, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in December have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping by 25 percentage points to 67% [5][6] Market Performance - The US stock market saw moderate gains, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.7%, 2.2%, and 0.8% respectively. However, the Russell index underperformed [23][24] - The bond market experienced a rise in yields, with the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields increasing by 9 basis points and 12 basis points to 4.11% and 3.60% respectively [16] - In commodities, the dollar index rose by 0.80% to 99.73, while COMEX gold and ICE Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.20% and 0.52% respectively [16] Sector Analysis - In the US, the technology and communication services sectors showed positive performance, while the real estate and consumer staples sectors faced significant declines [28] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.0% and 2.5% respectively, largely due to underwhelming earnings reports from tech and banking stocks [33][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), industries expected to improve (renewable energy, building materials, traditional cyclical sectors), and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support and changing consumer preferences [2][6]