Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-04 02:35Group 1: Report Summary - The current global iron ore shipment volume decreased month-on-month, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a slight decline. Meanwhile, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the domestic iron ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and profit decline, the molten iron production decreased significantly. As the terminal demand gradually weakens, the future demand will continue to decline. In general, the current iron ore supply and demand are gradually weakening, and the peak season is coming to an end. Coupled with the implementation of macro policies, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of terminal demand. The strategy is to expect range-bound fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price rebounded with fluctuations [6]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded from a low level, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder also rebounded from a low level [12][16]. - The 1-5 spread rebounded slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw-ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore-coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27]. Group 3: Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume of non-mainstream ores fluctuated slightly [33]. - The shipment volume of Australian ore to China and Brazilian ore both decreased slightly [37]. - The shipment volume of FMG to China decreased, while that of BHP increased slightly [42]. - The shipment volume of RT and VALE both increased slightly [46]. - The shipping freight index fluctuated slightly [50]. - The arrival volume increased significantly [54]. - The production of domestic iron ore concentrate changed little [57]. Group 4: Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces continued to weaken [63]. - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the molten iron production decreased significantly [69]. Group 5: Inventory - The port clearance volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [78]. - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore fluctuated at a high level [82]. - The inventory of coarse powder fluctuated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore decreased slightly [88]. - The consumption of steel mills decreased from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore decreased from a low level [96].