SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-04 03:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 28.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.50 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [6][7]. - Cultural paper prices have hit a bottom, and there is an expectation for gradual improvement in profitability due to upcoming demand seasons and cost advantages from lower raw material prices [6][7]. - The corrugated box paper prices are on an upward trend, driven by domestic and international supply constraints, which is expected to enhance profitability in the coming quarters [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 41.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6%. The net profit is forecasted to be 3.40 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.7% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.22 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [2][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 15.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.9% [2][8]. Market Data - As of November 3, 2025, the company's closing price was 14.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 39.66 billion yuan [3][6]. - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.3 and a dividend yield of 2.10% [3][6]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company is advancing its integrated forestry and pulp-paper strategy, with plans to increase its forest land area by over 10,000 hectares annually. New production capacities are expected to come online in the second half of 2025, which will support future growth [6][7].