巴比食品（605338）：2025 年三季报点评：持续成长，单店延续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 32 per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company continues to show strong growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching RMB 522 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.74%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.07% to RMB 70 million, while recurring net profit increased by 25.53% to RMB 74 million [10][11]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) rose by 2.81 percentage points to 29.6% in Q3 2025, attributed to cost benefits and scale effects. The overall period expense ratio decreased, leading to a recurring net profit margin increase of 0.99 percentage points to 14.17% [11][12]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its core East China region, with franchise revenue up 17.73% year-on-year to RMB 401 million in Q3 2025. Direct sales and group meals also saw significant increases [12][13]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve total revenues of RMB 1.63 billion, RMB 1.67 billion, RMB 1.92 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 2.27 billion, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.9% [3][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 214 million in 2023 to RMB 361 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 29.4% in 2024 [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.89 in 2023 to RMB 1.51 in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [3][4]. Store Expansion and Performance - The company added 791 new stores in the first three quarters of 2025, bringing the total to 5,934 stores. The full-year target of 1,000 new stores is considered achievable [13]. - The recovery of same-store sales has been evident, particularly in the East China region, where comparable same-store sales turned positive year-on-year in April and May 2025 [13].