China Express(SZ:002928) Minsheng Securities·2025-11-04 06:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 102% for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced unit costs and improved load factors [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a favorable operational environment, with unit revenue projected to rise and unit costs to decline, leading to enhanced profit margins [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 5.73 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, up 102% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, revenues reached 2.12 billion yuan, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 370 million yuan, reflecting a 32% increase [1]. Cost Management - The unit cost decreased by 4.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, aided by improved utilization rates and a drop in fuel prices, which fell by 12% year-on-year [2]. - The company has also begun to reverse credit impairment losses, indicating improved cash flow from customers [2]. Revenue Drivers - The company has maintained stable unit revenue despite industry-wide price declines, supported by institutional contracts that insulate it from price fluctuations [3]. - The demand for leisure travel has remained strong, contributing to better-than-expected performance in traditionally low-demand periods [3]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 620 million yuan, 850 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 129.7%, 38.0%, and 33.6% [4][10]. - The projected earnings per share for the same years are 0.48 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 22 in 2025 to 12 in 2027 [4][10].