SA(SH:601021) Minsheng Securities·2025-11-04 06:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Spring Airlines [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.3% to 2.34 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 6.2% to 1.17 billion yuan, indicating a decline in profitability due to pressure on passenger kilometer revenue [1][3] - The report highlights that the company's capacity deployment increased by 14% year-on-year, with an overall seat occupancy rate of 92.5%, remaining stable compared to Q3 2024 [2] - The decline in passenger kilometer revenue is attributed to falling ticket prices during the summer season and on routes to Japan, with domestic ticket prices down 3.9% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.3% decline year-on-year [1] - The Q3 2025 gross margin was 23.8%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while unit costs decreased by 4.7% [3] Capacity and Utilization - The company increased its capacity deployment by 14% year-on-year, with international capacity growing by 25% [2] - The domestic route capacity increased by 11%, maintaining a seat occupancy rate of 93.5% [2] Cost and Revenue Dynamics - The report notes that the decline in passenger kilometer revenue is due to industry price reductions, with a 7.5% year-on-year drop in overall seat kilometer revenue [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rebound in ticket prices [4] Future Outlook - The report projects a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan for 2025, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 2.96 billion yuan and 3.47 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for 2025, 18 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [5]