SWHY(SZ:000166) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-04 08:15Group 1 - The report discusses the potential for a year-end "running up" market in Q4, indicating that the optimism for the next year's bond market may be less than in previous years due to various constraints [8][9][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to restart bond purchases primarily to inject long-term liquidity and replace financial liabilities at low costs, with a potential buying range of 870 billion to 1.15 trillion [11][12] - The probability of interest rate cuts is marginally increasing, but still considered low, with the decision on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts likely depending on the scale of bond purchases [13][14] Group 2 - Current market trading congestion has decreased compared to Q3, but many funds still maintain high durations, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [14] - Effective strategies for Q4 and 2026 are shifting from duration strategies to interest rate leverage strategies, with an increased focus on asset allocation that includes equities and convertible bonds [18] - The performance of credit bonds has been strong since October, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain due to potential redemption pressures from public funds [19][21][22] Group 3 - The implementation of the I9 accounting standard by insurance companies in early 2026 may weaken their allocation power towards perpetual bonds, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [23][24] - The new value-added tax (VAT) regulations are anticipated to create pricing discrepancies between new and old financial bonds, affecting investor choices and market dynamics [26][27][28] - The convertible bond market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with potential upward pressure on prices as funds migrate from deposits to equities, benefiting convertible bonds [30]