Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-04 08:39Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].