Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improved coal quality at the TSE mining area, a reversal in coal prices, and significant growth potential [1] - The company has established a solid foundation as a resource value operator in Indonesia, with plans to optimize capital efficiency and maximize shareholder returns through innovative strategies [2] - The domestic coal price is anticipated to recover in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and low inventory levels, with expectations of price increases towards the end of the year [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has five major mining areas in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and aims to enhance its capital efficiency through strategic partnerships and innovative development paths [2] - The TSE coal mine is expected to have a higher calorific value compared to existing mines, with estimated coal reserves of 378.79 million tons [9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 160 million RMB, 690 million RMB, and 1.19 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.8X, 10.7X, and 6.2X [4][10] - Revenue is expected to decline in 2024 but recover significantly in 2026 and 2027, with a projected growth rate of 39.8% and 66.7% respectively [10] Market Conditions - Domestic coal production is expected to continue facing constraints due to safety inspections, leading to a likely decrease in production in the second half of the year [3] - The coal price is projected to rise due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand increases, with potential for significant price elasticity if demand exceeds expectations [3]
中国秦发（00866）：TSE矿区煤质更好，煤价反转上行，宏图大展空间可期