Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:21Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The key trading point of the current soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans in the context of China-US negotiations. With an expected export volume of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in and limited incremental factors, the ending inventory will remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, with the smooth progress of soybean planting in Brazil, there will be limited upward driving forces. The upward space of the domestic soybean meal rebound is expected to be limited due to the high inventory pressure in the near - term. The purchase of US soybeans will lead to a downward driving force in the far - term, but the cost support will also limit the decline [4]. - The key trading point of the current rapeseed meal futures is that the domestic rapeseed meal is affected by the continuous China - Canada negotiations. In the short term, due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, the futures price shows a slightly stronger performance, but it is not advisable to chase the long position. Since the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed was announced on August 12, domestic importers have been cautious about purchasing Canadian rapeseed. The import volume this year has decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter will maintain a state of weak supply and demand. After the Chinese government decided to resume group tours to Canada on November 3, the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 6.9%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 18.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 40.2% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Instrument | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal: The external market focuses on export demand, while the domestic market is constrained by high inventory in the near - term and the purchase of US soybeans in the far - term. Short - term attention should be paid to whether a procurement and tariff adjustment agreement is signed between China and the US this week [4]. - For rapeseed meal: Affected by China - Canada negotiations, the short - term performance is slightly stronger, but the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The new warrant registration situation after the centralized cancellation in November can be monitored [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - term contract price from the cost side; the external market continues to strengthen under the background of purchasing US soybeans; the pressure in the near - term is alleviated due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month [5]. - Bearish factors: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend; the smooth planting in Brazil and the expected high yield in South America suppress the far - term futures price; the supply gap in the far - term is filled under the background of China - US negotiations and procurement [6][7]. 3.5 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3015 | - 11 | - 0.36% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2818 | - 11 | - 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2935 | - 14 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2497 | 6 | 0.24% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2378 | - 2 | - 0.08% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2466 | - 4 | - 0.16% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1134.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.127 | 0.0129 | 0.18% | [7] 3.6 Price Spreads - Soybean meal spreads: The spread between M01 and M05 is 197 (no daily change), between M05 and M09 is - 117 (up 3), and between M09 and M01 is - 80 (down 3). The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3040 (no change), and the basis is 25 (up 11) [8]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: The spread between RM01 and RM05 is 119 (up 8), between RM05 and RM09 is - 88 (up 2), and between RM09 and RM01 is - 31 (down 10). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 (up 130), and the basis is 89 (up 27) [8]. - Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spreads: The spot price spread is 460 (no change), and the futures price spread is 518 (down 17) [8]. 3.7 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | 4858.2301 | - 88.7137 | 0.2633 | | Import cost of Brazilian soybeans | 4116.33 | 60.38 | 79.49 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 789.9561 | - 10.8447 | - 57.4083 | | Import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | - 991.4751 | - 88.7137 | - 404.2412 | | Import profit of Brazilian soybeans | - 38.6558 | 0.6921 | - 10.2467 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (futures) | 596 | - 63 | - 135 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (spot) | 857 | - 56 | - 130 | [9]