鸿远电子（603267）：2025年三季报点评：处于军工电子高景气赛道下的“产能升级+盈利兑现”关键跃升期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a key leap period characterized by "capacity upgrade + profit realization" under the high prosperity cycle of military electronics [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 222 million yuan, up 74.56% year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: The company achieved total revenue of 1.427 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 222 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 74.56% [1][7] - Profitability: The gross profit margin improved to 45.49%, an increase of 9.14 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin reached 15.54%, up 4.63 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Cost Control: The company maintained controllable expense ratios, with sales expenses at 97 million yuan, management expenses at 102 million yuan, and R&D expenses at 97 million yuan [7] Asset and Liability Management - Asset Structure: As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's asset-liability ratio was 18.88%, slightly up from 16.01% year-on-year, indicating low financial risk [7] - Inventory Management: Inventory decreased by 4.77% year-on-year to 782 million yuan, reflecting improved supply chain management efficiency [7] Cash Flow and Investment Outlook - Cash Flow: The net cash flow from operating activities was -11 million yuan, a decline from 186 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to increased accounts receivable and tax payments [7] - Free Cash Flow: The company generated positive free cash flow of 1 million yuan, indicating good internal funding capabilities despite increased investments [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings Forecast: The company is expected to achieve net profits of 326 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 571 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36, 24, and 20 times [1][7]