Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:27Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend in the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be filled in time, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the quantity of imported lithium concentrates this month can ease the supply tightness. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The current demand is strong, and the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, indicating the demand toughness for lithium carbonate. The high - prosperity production schedule in November will maintain the strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. The downstream demand of lithium battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the spot price of lithium carbonate [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The 20 - day rolling volatility of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 30.0%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 45.1%. The strong pressure level of the LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Contract Information: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,720 yuan (- 4.52%) and a weekly decrease of 3,080 yuan (- 3.77%). The trading volume is 975,978 lots, with a daily increase of 389,310 lots (66.36%) and a weekly increase of 246,671 lots (33.82%). The open interest is 457,374 lots, with a daily decrease of 67,810 lots (- 12.91%) and a weekly decrease of 31,429 lots (- 6.43%) [8]. - Spread Information: LC2601 - LC2603 is 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 420 yuan (- 80.77%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 86.49%); LC2601 - LC2605 is - 500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 580 yuan (- 725.00%) and a weekly decrease of 740 yuan (- 308.33%); LC2603 - LC2605 is - 600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (36.36%) and a weekly increase of 100 yuan (20.00%) [8]. - Warehouse Receipt Information: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,490 lots, with a daily decrease of 800 lots (- 2.93%) and a weekly decrease of 845 lots (- 3.09%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average daily prices of various lithium ores have different degrees of decline. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 35 yuan (- 1.63%) and a weekly increase of 50 yuan (2.42%) [26]. - Lithium Salt Prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.13%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.15%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.12%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.06%) [29]. - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 36,025 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan (- 0.07%) [38]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Information: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands vary. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2601) is - 100 yuan, and the four - material comprehensive basis quote (LC2601) is - 225 yuan [42]. - Warehouse Receipt Information: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,490 lots, a decrease of 800 lots compared with yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as a decrease of 150 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Pass Shanghai and 440 lots in Suining Tiancheng [45]. 4. Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The report shows the production profit charts of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore, including the production profit from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [46][47][49]. 5. Risk Management Strategies - Procurement Management: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials in the future, if they are worried about the increase in procurement costs due to rising lithium carbonate prices, they can buy corresponding futures contracts or sell put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 20%, and the recommended entry range is below 73,000 yuan for futures and LC2512 - P - 73000 for options [2]. - Sales Management: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate in the future, if they are worried about the decrease in sales profits due to falling prices, they can sell corresponding futures contracts or buy put options and sell call options to lock in sales profits. The hedging ratio for futures is 40%, and 20% for options [2]. - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories, if they are worried about inventory depreciation due to falling prices, they can sell futures contracts or call options to lock in inventory value. The hedging ratio for futures is 60% (above 83,000 yuan), and 30% for call options (LC2601 - C - 83000) [2].